The Voyage Estimator Pack

Over the coming few weeks I will be releasing the Virtual Shipbrokers Voyage Estimation Pack.

This website, on its own, will be useful for Students and Trainees but the 'pack' will be designed more for the already established shipping professional.

At this stage (the concept is not 100 pct actualised) it looks like being a multi faceted training guide and set of tools, for brokers, charterers and freight traders looking to run voyage estimations as part of their day to day job descriptions.

For those interested in learning more you will have the opportunity to take an indepth look at the art of voyage estimation from 3 different perspectives. This will be an opportunity to look into the minds of the various people who 'use vessel estimation' as part of their every day work. Each will have a different aim and each will have a different set of stakeholders and managers they need to report to. How do I know this? - Because I have been all of the above!

With this insight there will be numerous voyage calculation examples and accompanying explanations helping to better explain all the terms and trading theories involved in dry bulk shipping.

learn about trading patters, backhaul vs front haul, Delivering a ship APS or DOP etc and how all these relate to a cargo voyages profit and loss.

And there will be a little something in the pack so that you wont have to do all the calculations freehand!

The pack, together with this website, will give anyone, anywhere, all the necessary tools to take their performance and understanding to the next level. And all without breaking the bank.
No yearly subscriptions, no holding back information and you finally you get to ask me questions anytime you want!

Should be available over the next 1 month or so.

Best Regards
VS

Long Hand Voyage Calculation Example

For all those students and brokers out there wanting to learn more about the art of effective Voyage Estimating please find below one of the VS's very own long hand calcs for a well know bulk trade route. Bulk cement from Asia to Europe.

For the uninitiated - what lies below is the skeletal essence of the entire dry bulk industry. Beneath the thin layer of skin tissue remains the bones! Understand how to run 'good' voyage calculations and you understand 90 percent of what it means to be a shipowner, freight trader and a great broker (fixing machine).

The calculations may appear a little daunting at first but believe me if you take a day or so to work through some examples it will become much clearer in a very short time!

Having said that, voyage estimation is as much of an art as it is a science. I will be revealing some of those artisitc secrets to those who are up for it. Hang around!

++

Anyway back to the example at hand

Details including costs are approximate in todays market.

Cargo details
45,000 / 10 percent Cement
Load: 1 Sa Kosichang Thailand
Discharge: Genoa Italy
Laycan 1-10 December
Load speed: 20,000 Satpmshex
Discharge Speed: 10,000 Shinc
2.5 percent adcom + 1.25 brokerage

Vessel
MV Jingo Jingo – Open Singapore 27 November
58,000 dwt SDBC on Draft 12.2 meter ssw
Speed and Consumption:
IFO (Fuel oil) 13.5 knots / 25mt (laden)
14 knots / 21mt (ballast)
MDO (Diesel Oil) 1.5mt at sea 1 mt in port

Other details that you need to collate

- Vessel delivery will take place dop Singapore.
- Vessels intake will be 49,500 mt bulk Cement
- Price of Bunkers: Spot Singapore prices IFO USD 423 / MDO USD 572 pmt
- Port Costs: Kohsichang USD 10,000, Genoa USD 55,000
- Miscellaneous expenses: USD 5,000
- Suez Canal cost: USD 203,000
- Suez canal Transit 1 day
- Net Daily Hire of the Ship (cost in the open market to charter a ship on a Time charter basis): USD 10,000 per day prorata.
- Loading will take: 3.12 days
- Discharging will take: 4.95 days
- Ballast Distance Singapore to Load port 865 NM
- Laden Distance 7,307 NM
- Repositioning leg distance 583 NM (reposition to Cape Passero)
- Extra Sailing Time allowed for bad weather: 1 day
- Turn Time 12 hours both ends


Task

Prepare a Voyage Estimate to find out the PMT (per metric tonne) freight rate for this cargo to break even for the owners.

Step 1. Calculate the Voyage duration

A) Ballast leg = 865 nm/336 (14knots x 24 hours) = 2.57 days
B) Laden Leg = 7307 nm/324 (13.5knots x 24 hours) = 22.5 days
C) Repositioning Leg = 583 nm/336 (14 x 24 hours) = 1.74 days
Total Sailing days = 26.81

Plus days in port = 9.07 days (8.07 loading and discharging plus 1 day in total turn time)
Plus Bad weather = 1 day
Plus Suez transit = 1 day

Total estimated voyage Duration = 37.88 days

Step 2. Calculate the Bunker / Fuel Costs

a) IFO (Fuel oil) ast sea
Ballast leg 21mt IFO per day x 2.57 days = 53.97mt
Laden leg 25 mt IFO per day x 22.5 days = 562.5 mt
Repo leg 21 mt IFO per day x 1.74 days = 36.54mt
Total cost: 653.01 mt x USD 423 = USD 276,223

b) MDO (Diesel oil) at sea 1.5 mt per day x 26.81 days = 40.22 mt
Total Cost: 40.22 x USD 572 = USD 23,006

c) In Port Consumption
9.07 days x 1 mt MDO = 9.07 Mt MDO x USD 572
Total Cost = USD 5,188.04

Total Bunker cost (A+B+C) = USD 304,417

Step 3. Calculate TC in Costs (Chartered in Vessel Costs )

USD 10,000 per day x 37.88 days = USD 378,800

Step 4. Results

Calculate Total Voyage Costs

1. Total Bunker cost USD 304,417
2. Port Costs USD 65,000
3. TC in Costs USD 378,800
4. Miscellaneous USD 5,000
5. Suez canal USD 203,000

Costs USD 956,217
Plus Commission
of 3.75 percent of Total Cost USD 35,858

Total Voyage Cost USD 992075

Break even freight rate required to perform this voyage:
USD 992,075 / 49,500 mt cargo = USD 20.04 mt

Final Result (Freight rate needed) = USD 20.00 per metric tonne (rounded)

(disclaimer - this example is for teaching purposes only and readers should not rely on the accuracy or otherwise of the information provided for any other purpose other than to learn the estimation process)

The Virtual Shipbrokers - Voyage Calculation Blog

Watch this space for all the tools you need to do accurate and cost effective dry bulk voyage calculations.

Perfect for Shipbrokers, Traders, Charterers, Shipowners and advanced Students.

My Blog http://www.virtualshipbroker.blogspot.com/